Sunday, September 21, 2008

Conference strength


As annoying as it is to admit, the SEC currently sits atop the heap as far as college football conference dominance is concerned. I still contend that the jean shorts gang isn't nearly as far ahead of everyone else as they think they are. However, until someone proves otherwise, that's a trivial thing to debate.

As recently as the beginning of the 2008 season, a casual poll of football fans across the country would probably have given you the following order in terms of ranking the conferences:

1. SEC
2. Big XII
3. PAC-10
4. ACC
5. Big Ten
6. Big East

Although, I'm sure you could have found many that would have slotted the Big Ten ahead of the ACC.

I checked in on Jeff Sagarin this morning to see what his latest conference rankings indicated through four weeks of the 2008 season. While Sagarin is by no means the be-all, end-all of computer rankings, in general I find that I agree with his assessments more often then I do not.

And besides, he's a Big Ten guy having received his MBA from Indiana University after receiving an undergraduate degree in mathematics from M.I.T.

Wow, math majors at M.I.T. That must be quite a reunion. Put away the women and children when those guys come to town.

Anyway, through yesterday, here are the conference rankings using Sagarin's central average (which puts slightly more emphasis on the teams in the middle of the conference):

1. SEC (80.86)
2. Big XII (78.15)
3. ACC (77.38)
4. Big Ten (77.37)
5. PAC-10 (76.86)
6. Big East (74.34)
7. Moutain West (71.89)

Observations:

- The SEC, not surprisingly, is still comfortably in front of everyone else. That doesn't appear to be changing anytime soon.

- The ACC and Big Ten are virtually tied, separated by one one-hundredth of a point. Based one what I've seen from the ACC so, the Big Ten should pull ahead by the end of the season. However, with Miami and North Carolina rapidly improving that could change.

- The PAC-10 might be the most top-heavy conference of all time. Southern Cal is clearly the best team based on their performance so far. However, the second-best team in the conference, Oregon, lost at home to Boise State yesterday. That means the Trojans may be the lone ranked team in the conference by the end of the day today.

- The Big East is woeful. South Florida and UCONN currently sit atop the Big East standings, both are 4-0. However, going back to Sagarin's ratings, he coincidentally has S. Florida and UCONN next to each other at 34 and 35 respectively. Yikes.

- For all their great wins so far this season, the Mountain West is still well off the BCS pace according to Sagarin.

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