Sunday, September 28, 2008

Riddle me this...


Better to get pounded by a really good team? Or better to lose a close one to an unranked team or a heavy underdog?

Buckeyes were double-digit 'dogs playing at #1 Southern Cal. Ohio State was in it for a quarter. They were out of it by the half. The second half was mostly unwatchable, as the Buckeyes mustered 30 yards and zero points. It was an embarrassing, horrendous loss that many around the country must have relished and gave further credence to the claims that OSU has been vastly overrated recently.

Yep, that was about as bad as it gets.

Ten days later though the worm turned.

Southern Cal, the consensus #1 by a mile, went to Corvallis to take on the Beavers and found themselves down 21 points at halftime. Oregon State was a 25-point 'dog.

Keep in mind by the way, that spreads are true measures of how much better one team is then another. Spreads are based on expectations and are designed not to predict the outcome of a game, but to guarantee as much action on both sides of the line as possible.

That all being said, when you assess upsets, one of the best way to compare is by looking at the spread. This is how we know that USC losing at home to Stanford at home last season (The Cardinal was +41) was one of the greatest/most significant upsets of the last few decades. By comparison, Appalachian State was only about a 25-point underdog when they knocked off the Wolverines in the Big Outhouse.

The ironic thing is that just as Ohio State reinforced a pattern of poor play against college football heavyweights with the loss in L.A., the Trojans also furthered a trend of losing to PAC-10 lightweights they were supposed to dominate.

Which is more damning? Which is easier to cope with?

We weren't quite as good as we thought we were.


OR

We wasted an opportunity by losing a game we should have won.

The former would seem to be an observation regarding the players. The latter is more an indictment of the coaches. The latter is also what ultimately got John Cooper fired. Well, that and a total and complete inability to beat Michigan.

We saw two more examples of this yesterday.

First, it was Florida, ranked in the Top 5, playing at home. They were favored by approximately 22 points against a 2-2 Ole Miss team that had just crapped away a game to Vanderbilt. As you all know by now, the Gators lost to the Rebels by one point.

Conversely, Georgia was absolutely throttled by Alabama, again at home. It was 31-0 at halftime. I'll give the Bulldog fans credit, every single one of them was still in their seats when the second half started. It's a good thing too, because they witnessed UGA scored the most meaningless 30 points ever scored in one half of football.

The final score was 41-30. You are probably never, ever going to see a more lopsided 11-point win in your life though. Make no mistake, that game was over at halftime. I'm not sure what the spread for the 'Bama-UGA game was, but I'm sure Georgia was favored and that it couldn't have been by much.

So again, which was the more damning loss? Florida or Georgia? Gators or Bulldogs?

Hard to say.

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